Ah, while I am at, I may as well put this plot up, too. The code needs to be updated, but let me know if you think this could be useful. It’s very similar to the calibrate() plots from Harell’s Design library, just that it works for lmer() models from Doug Bates’ lme4 library.
The plot below is from a model of complementizer that-mentioning (a type of syntactic reduction as in I believe (that) it is time to go to bed). The model uses 26 parameters to predict speakers’ choice between complement clauses with and without that. This includes predictors modeling the accessibility, fluency, etc. at the complement clause onset, overall domain complexity, the potential for ambiguity avoidance, predictability of the complement clause, syntactic persistence effects, social effects, individual speaker differences, etc.
Mean predicted probabilities vs. observed proportions of that. The data is divided into 20 bins based on 0.05 intervals of predicted values from 0 to 1. The amount of observed data points in each bin is expressed as multiples of the minimum bin size. The data rug at the top of the plot visualizes the distribution of the predicted values. See Jaeger (almost-submitted, Figure 2).